Big Chino Water Ranch Project Impact Analysis

Elliott D. Pollack & Company was retained by Central Arizona Partnership to perform an impact analysis of the BCWR project. The analysis involved a number of tasks including identifying reasonable forecasts for community population growth; comparing these forecasts to scenarios of growth if water supply is restricted by the Assured Water Supply Rules; illustrating the opportunity costs of not developing the pipeline; and quantifying the results of the analysis. All dollar figures are in 2008 dollars. Following is a summary of the results:
The City of Prescott was granted an Assured Water Supply Designation of 14,822 acre-feet in 2005. As of the end of 2007, the City estimated that 1,700 acre-feet remained available for allocation to new development. Without any importation of water, the City of Prescott can build an estimated 4,857 residential units, or support a population of 10,686 people. This population will be reached by 2014. The Town of Prescott Valley has the water rights to more than 5,000 acre feet and estimates they could issue about 17,000 residential permits. This would support an additional 40,000 people and would constrain growth past 2031. However, it is important to note that the limitations that will first exist in the City of Prescott may temporarily push new residential development to the Town of Prescott Valley.
If the City of Prescott and the Town of Prescott Valley are unable to issue additional permits, and the communities are no longer able to grow, they would incur lost economic activity as well as a significant impact on government revenues. With no additional residential homes, the demand for commercial will also be limited. These impacts are calculated over a 25-year impact period.View Document.